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Inflation continued to show disinflationary signs this week with July’s CPI and PPI figures coming in, as small & mid-sized banks were downgraded by Moody’s and surprised investors. Additionally, we saw that consumers are feeling more encouraged by economic conditions as seen in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, despite oil prices rising in July. In every economic environment, we look forward to continuing to monitor markets closely.

This week was a week for the bulls, with Consumer Confidence and higher personal spending demonstrating an optimistic consumer and Durable Goods Orders pointing to resilient industrial demand. Fed Chair Jerome Powell brought us another 0.25% rate hike in the July FOMC, as key PCE inflation on Friday pointed to a continued disinflationary environment.

During this quarter, the Federal Open Market Committee met twice, once in May and once in June. May’s meeting brought a 25-basis point rate hike, bringing the target range to 5.0-5.25%, while the June meeting brought the most recent Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed members.

n another month of disinflation, CPI, PPI, and PCE all made downward moves, as the Federal Reserve decided against another rate hike at their June FOMC meeting. Although data is slowly but surely moving in the right direction, the fight against inflation remains.

Our team of skilled analysts will diligently monitor economic data as it becomes available in order to effectively manage each portfolio across different macroeconomic environments.

One thing we have seen this week, is that uncertainty is certain in this economy, with the US avoiding a default on their debt at the last minute. At the same time, manufacturing indexes show that we may already be in a near recessionary environment, while over +300k monthly job gains in May tell a very different story. Every day of economic data seems to provide a different narrative of how the US economy is doing.

In all macroeconomic environments, our team of talented analysts will continue to constantly monitor economic data as it rolls out to best manage each portfolio.

We hope this stickier month of inflation data from April is more of an outlier and less of a trend, and we are hopeful inflation comes down as the lagging effects of higher interest rates ripple throughout the economy. If inflation does not calm down as quickly as we, the Fed, and many other market participants hope, we will monitor data closely and manage portfolios appropriately.

Author: Joe Maas, CIO, SPG Advisors, LLC QUARTERLY COMMENTARY Q1 of 2023 brought positive returns in both the S&P 500 (+7.03%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+16.77%), with a muted Dow…

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