Uncategorized

As 2023 concludes, markets have outperformed expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite up +44.2%, S&P 500 +24.6%, Dow Jones +13.8%, and Barclays AGG +2.5% as of close on December 28th. Even though stocks have done well in 2023, many remain below their all-time highs still, requiring more bullish sentiment to propel above past highs.

Amidst a holiday week, economic indicators presented a mixed outlook as stocks continued their rally. Existing and new home sales continue to show the impacts of higher mortgage rates, with sluggishness in both markets. December’s consumer confidence rose significantly in the month, however on the other hand, leading economic indicators for November declined, demonstrating a disconnect between current and forward-looking indicators

This week’s market saw a rally fueled by disinflation and a dovish Federal Reserve meeting, with the Dow Jones hitting an all-time high. The FOMC meeting indicated discussion of a timeline for rate cuts in 2024, projecting a lower-than-expected Fed Funds rate with three rate cuts estimated to occur throughout next year. CPI and PPI data came in as expected and demonstrated continued disinflation in November. November retail sales data also showed strength in spending from consumers, however general merchandise sales did fall for the third month in a row despite the increased holiday spending overal

Markets closed out November strong this week as equities rose alongside bonds. October PCE inflation data showed moderate inflation as expected, but consumer confidence remains low despite November’s slight increase in confidence as most consumers still believe in the possibility of a recession in the next year. Both new and existing home markets are weakening on higher rates, and the manufacturing industry continues to show some cracks. We look forward to continuing to monitor data as it rolls out.

While various indicators like inflation, employment, consumer spending, and consumer confidence, point to an economic slowdown, the key question is whether this trend will persist as solely a slowdown or escalate into a recession, compelling investors to be patient for more data to roll out.

When the Fed starts cutting rates, it will either come from a place of victory over inflation or out of necessity to stop the economy from a downturn. In either case, lower rates will probably be the push the residential real estate market needs to get out of its current gridlock, which will also impact future inflation.

This week, consumer credit data revealed increased revolving debt, like credit cards, as consumer sentiment has fallen over the past four months but remains higher than a year ago. Q3 earnings season, almost complete, has generally surpassed expectations, contributing to a more positive outlook for corporations.