Market Update

Last week, stocks rebounded, fueled by the impressive earnings of large-cap technology companies, overshadowing less optimistic economic data. Meanwhile, March’s PCE inflation data revealed a higher-than-expected inflation rate, contributing to concerns about sustained inflationary pressures. Despite a healthy increase in personal income, spending rose more sharply in March, leading the personal savings rate to drop to its lowest level since October 2022.

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectations, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year.

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectation, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year. T

As of the end of Q1 2024, we have observed 35 bullish factors in the economic cycle and 14 bearish factors, resulting in a bullish score of 71.4% and a bearish score of 28.6%. Regarding our position within the economic cycle, we believe we may be near a midpoint, indicating potential for further economic growth while also acknowledging the possibility of a downturn ahead.

Despite a Friday boost from better than expected job gains in the US, last week saw stocks pull back. Nonfarm payrolls rose by +303,000 in March, dropping unemployment to 3.8%. The ISM Manufacturing Index turned positive after 16 months of contraction, and the ISM Services Index also showed growth in the service sector in March. Consumer credit data from January increased debt usage, with rising credit card delinquency rates. Apple announced its first round of layoffs in California, breaking its trend of avoiding mass layoffs seen in 2022 and 2023 among most other technology companies.

February personal income rose +0.3%, while spending rose +0.8%, leading the personal savings rate to drop to 3.6%. New home prices dropped by -3.5% from January, nearing bear market territory from the peak of new home prices in 2021. Durable goods orders increased modestly by +1.4%, but downward revisions in January underscored challenges in the manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence remained stable in March. Upward revisions in real GDP and consumer sentiment data provided positive surprises, indicating a resilient US economy.