Market Update

Markets fell last week after a higher-than-expected January CPI report, showing a 3.1% annual inflation rate, triggering a selloff with the S&P 500. The increase was fueled by rising transportation, shelter, and food away from home costs, though energy and used vehicle prices dropped. This unexpected inflationary pressure pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Markets saw large price swings this week, starting with a sharp selloff in equities after Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in March was not their base case scenario. Despite this, markets rebounded later in the week, driven by a robust January jobs report that exceeded expectations. The labor market’s strength, coupled with positive consumer confidence, coincide with the realities of a delayed Fed rate cut. Q4 earnings reports showed better earnings growth this week, as Meta’s impressive Q4 performance was surprisingly marked by a new dividend and share buyback plan, leading to a 20% increase in its stock on Friday.

Markets saw large price swings this week, starting with a sharp selloff in equities after Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in March was not their base case scenario. Despite this, markets rebounded later in the week, driven by a robust January jobs report that exceeded expectations. The labor market’s strength, coupled with positive consumer confidence, coincide with the realities of a delayed Fed rate cut. Q4 earnings reports showed better earnings growth this week, as Meta’s impressive Q4 performance was surprisingly marked by a new dividend and share buyback plan, leading to a 20% increase in its stock on Friday.

In a week fueled by a robust GDP report, equities rose ahead of the January 31st FOMC meeting. The Leading Economic Index for December showed a modest -0.1% monthly decline, indicating a slower decrease but is still in bearish territory.

Equity markets showed mixed results amid concerns that strong retail sales data may delay the anticipated March rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, markets reflected this data, with the probability of a cut by the March meeting falling from 81% to just 51.3% in a single week (as of January 19th). The NY Empire State Index fell sharply below expectations and existing home sales in December continued to show lower volumes of homes being sold at modest appreciation rates compared to a year ago. Finally, consumer sentiment surged in January, marking the greatest two-month rise in the index since 1991.

This week, the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, following months of anticipation and a hack on the SEC’s social media, X, account. December’s CPI surprised economists to the upside with a 3.4% annual Headline CPI and a 3.9% annualized Core CPI. December’s Producer Price Index showed a slight decrease, influenced by lower food and energy costs. November’s consumer credit data revealed a +5.7% increase, driven by a rise in revolving credit.

The fourth quarter of 2023 brought excellent results for both stocks and bonds, contributing to an overall positive year for financial markets and the economy, surpassing many economists and analysts’ expectations. Notably, inflation made significant strides toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, prompting indications that the Fed’s cycle of interest rate hikes has likely concluded.