Market Update – July 15th, 2024

Another bullish week went down for stocks and bonds, as June’s CPI fell to -0.1% monthly and 3% annually, the lowest since June 2023. Core CPI dropped to 3.3%, a low since 2021. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index posted hotter than expected data, however this was largely overlooked by markets.

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Market Update – July 8th, 2024

This week echoed the likelihood of a soft landing as June’s jobs report showed mixed results with nonfarm payroll rising, but an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate, hinting at a higher chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Services Indexes indicated sector-wide weaknesses in June, suggesting an increased risk of an economic slowdown. Monitoring economic and inflationary data, especially the CPI print and the start of Q2 earnings in the week ahead, will be crucial.

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Market Update – July 1st, 2024

Despite being more muted last week, stocks posted a positive first half of 2024. In this past week’s economic news, PCE inflation remained flat at 2.6%, personal income rose 0.5% in May, and consumer spending grew 0.2%. Consumer confidence fell slightly, with concerns about future economic conditions.

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Market Update – June 24th, 2024

Economic data demonstrated a stable yet softer US economy last week, as May’s retail sales came in below expectations, with several important categories declining. Existing home sales volumes continued to fall, although the median home sales price reached a record high.

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Market Update – June 17th, 2024

Stocks notched new all-time highs last week on news of a lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation reports, where consumer inflation clocked in at 3.3%, and producer inflation clocked in at 2.2%. During its June meeting, the Federal Reserve revised its projections, now anticipating only one rate cut in 2024 and raising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment has unexpectedly declined in recent months on concerns of sticky prices.

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Market Update – June 10th, 2024

Last week saw a continued rally in the markets, driven by a mixed jobs report that suggests the Federal Reserve may need to hold rates longer or continue with their current trajectory of potentially cutting rates this fall. The ISM Manufacturing index remained weak, while the ISM Services index highlighted the ongoing strength of the US economy. Looking ahead to this week, the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will be pivotal in gauging the central bank’s future monetary policy action

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Market Update – April 22nd, 2024

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectations, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year.

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Market Update – April 15th, 2024

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectation, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year. T

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Q1 End Report

As of the end of Q1 2024, we have observed 35 bullish factors in the economic cycle and 14 bearish factors, resulting in a bullish score of 71.4% and a bearish score of 28.6%. Regarding our position within the economic cycle, we believe we may be near a midpoint, indicating potential for further economic growth while also acknowledging the possibility of a downturn ahead.

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Market Update – April 8th, 2024

Despite a Friday boost from better than expected job gains in the US, last week saw stocks pull back. Nonfarm payrolls rose by +303,000 in March, dropping unemployment to 3.8%. The ISM Manufacturing Index turned positive after 16 months of contraction, and the ISM Services Index also showed growth in the service sector in March. Consumer credit data from January increased debt usage, with rising credit card delinquency rates. Apple announced its first round of layoffs in California, breaking its trend of avoiding mass layoffs seen in 2022 and 2023 among most other technology companies.

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