Market Update

This week’s economic data reflected a resilient but uncertain U.S. economy. Stocks sold off as concerns grew that strong economic data might delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recession indicators remain mixed, with bullish signals from services and employment offset by bearish manufacturing and leading indicators.

U.S. stocks reached new highs after the presidential election and a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump was declared president-elect after winning key swing states, and Republicans took control of the Senate. The Fed’s rate cut brought funds rate down. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Index showed strong growth in October, despite disruptions from Hurricane Helene.

Stocks wrapped up October on a negative note, as last week delivered a series of important economic data points. The October jobs report showed the slowest hiring pace since 2020…

October was a mixed month for markets, but our market cycle assessment remained bullish. Despite this reading, we maintain concerns that the market may be cooling from a bullish run.

Markets continued their positive trend last week as retail sales posted better than expected, increasing by 0.4% in September, though real retail sales showed a slight decline annually after adjusting for inflation.

Markets continued their positive trend last week as retail sales posted better than expected, increasing by 0.4% in September, though real retail sales showed a slight decline annually after adjusting for inflation.

Stocks rallied last week on hopes of a soft landing and a strong start to the Q3 earnings season, with the S&P 500 closing above 5,800 for the first time.

Stocks ended the week slightly lower but still near all-time highs, as the September jobs report surprised markets with stronger-than-expected results. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September and nonfarm payroll gains jumped to 254,000, both better than expectations.

During the last full week of September, equites saw gains, as softer-than-expected PCE inflation data signaled continued disinflation. The PCE Index showed annual headline inflation at 2.2% and core inflation at 2.7%, reflecting minimal monthly price increases of just 0.1% for both measures. Meanwhile, personal income and spending grew by 0.2% in August, and the personal savings rate held at 4.8%, indicating a fair balance of income, spending, and saving.

Last week, stocks hit new all-time highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut, the first in over four years, reducing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75%–5%. Additionally, in the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, the central bank reflected a more aggressive trajectory for future cuts.