Market Update – June 24th, 2024

Economic data demonstrated a stable yet softer US economy last week, as May’s retail sales came in below expectations, with several important categories declining. Existing home sales volumes continued to fall, although the median home sales price reached a record high.

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Market Update – June 17th, 2024

Stocks notched new all-time highs last week on news of a lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation reports, where consumer inflation clocked in at 3.3%, and producer inflation clocked in at 2.2%. During its June meeting, the Federal Reserve revised its projections, now anticipating only one rate cut in 2024 and raising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment has unexpectedly declined in recent months on concerns of sticky prices.

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Market Update – June 10th, 2024

Last week saw a continued rally in the markets, driven by a mixed jobs report that suggests the Federal Reserve may need to hold rates longer or continue with their current trajectory of potentially cutting rates this fall. The ISM Manufacturing index remained weak, while the ISM Services index highlighted the ongoing strength of the US economy. Looking ahead to this week, the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will be pivotal in gauging the central bank’s future monetary policy action

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Market Update – April 29th, 2024

Last week, stocks rebounded, fueled by the impressive earnings of large-cap technology companies, overshadowing less optimistic economic data. Meanwhile, March’s PCE inflation data revealed a higher-than-expected inflation rate, contributing to concerns about sustained inflationary pressures. Despite a healthy increase in personal income, spending rose more sharply in March, leading the personal savings rate to drop to its lowest level since October 2022.

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Market Update – April 22nd, 2024

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectations, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year.

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Market Update – April 15th, 2024

Geopolitical tensions and strong US retail sales data prompted a pullback in stocks lasts week, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly on UNH’s strong quarterly earnings report. March’s retail sales exceeded expectation, sending expectations of the Fed’s first rate cut further into the second half of the year. T

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Q1 End Report

As of the end of Q1 2024, we have observed 35 bullish factors in the economic cycle and 14 bearish factors, resulting in a bullish score of 71.4% and a bearish score of 28.6%. Regarding our position within the economic cycle, we believe we may be near a midpoint, indicating potential for further economic growth while also acknowledging the possibility of a downturn ahead.

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