Archive for January 2025

Last week, economic data was subdued as attention shifted to President Trump’s inauguration, executive orders, and Q4 earnings season, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs.

Markets found encouragement last week as falling yields and softer-than-expected core inflation lifted sentiment. December’s CPI and PPI reports showed inflation easing in several key areas, supporting hopes for stable prices, though inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Retail sales and housing data painted a mixed picture.

Stocks declined last week, driven by strong labor market data that raised concerns the Federal Reserve may cut rates less aggressively in 2025. Meanwhile, consumer debt outstanding declined year-over-year, as high interest rates on items like car loans persist.

The first week of 2025 began with equities posting modest losses amid sparse economic data, while bonds saw slight gains. Recession indicators remain mixed, with bearish signals from manufacturing and leading indicators, countered by bullish trends in the services sector and labor market.