Archive for September 2024

During the last full week of September, equites saw gains, as softer-than-expected PCE inflation data signaled continued disinflation. The PCE Index showed annual headline inflation at 2.2% and core inflation at 2.7%, reflecting minimal monthly price increases of just 0.1% for both measures. Meanwhile, personal income and spending grew by 0.2% in August, and the personal savings rate held at 4.8%, indicating a fair balance of income, spending, and saving.

Last week, stocks hit new all-time highs, driven by the Federal Reserve’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut, the first in over four years, reducing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75%–5%. Additionally, in the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, the central bank reflected a more aggressive trajectory for future cuts.

Stocks regained ground last week as inflation data lifted confidence ahead of this week’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting, where the Fed’s first rate cut is expected. The August CPI report showed inflation at 2.5%, slightly below estimates, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 3.2%, slightly above forecasts. Similarly, the Producer Price Index indicated stable wholesale inflation in August, consumer sentiment improved for the second consecutive month, reflecting optimism despite election concerns, and the Employment Trends Index indicated stable labor market conditions.

Last week, stocks tumbled as concerns over an economic slowdown intensified, driven by weaker-than-expected job gains in August. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, but only 142,000 jobs were added, falling short of projections.