Archive for November 2023

While various indicators like inflation, employment, consumer spending, and consumer confidence, point to an economic slowdown, the key question is whether this trend will persist as solely a slowdown or escalate into a recession, compelling investors to be patient for more data to roll out.

When the Fed starts cutting rates, it will either come from a place of victory over inflation or out of necessity to stop the economy from a downturn. In either case, lower rates will probably be the push the residential real estate market needs to get out of its current gridlock, which will also impact future inflation.

This week, consumer credit data revealed increased revolving debt, like credit cards, as consumer sentiment has fallen over the past four months but remains higher than a year ago. Q3 earnings season, almost complete, has generally surpassed expectations, contributing to a more positive outlook for corporations.

In the week ending on November 3rd, equity markets rallied on signals from the Federal Reserve that the rate-hiking cycle might be at its end. Consumer confidence declined for the third straight month, despite other economic metrics showing a consumer that is still spending heavily.