Market Update – November 24th, 2025
Financial Markets
It was another soft week for equities as concerns over elevated tech valuations lingered, even with Nvidia reporting standout Q3 earnings last week. Markets also stayed sharply focused on shifting expectations for a potential December rate cut, and stocks partially rebounded on Friday as futures markets tilted back toward the likelihood of an additional interest rate cut this year.
By the close on Friday, November 21st, the Nasdaq Composite posted the largest decline at –2.74%, the S&P 500 fell –1.95%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped –1.91% in the week.
Market News
September Jobs Report
Released more than six weeks late due to the government shutdown, September’s employment report marked the first full BLS update since early September, and it came in broadly stronger than expected. The U.S. added 110,000 jobs during the month, still modest relative to the post-pandemic hiring surge but the strongest reading since the spring.
Job growth was concentrated in healthcare, which added 43,000 positions, food services and drinking places, which added 37,000, and social assistance, which added 14,000 jobs in the month. Weakness stemmed from transportation and warehousing, which lost 25,000 jobs, and in federal employment, which declined by 3,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%.
Wage growth provided another positive data point, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% from a year ago, outpacing September’s 3% CPI reading. July and August saw downward revisions, including a notable 26,000 cut to August payrolls, but investors largely looked past those updates, focusing on September’s stronger-than-expected job gains.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rate Cut Expectations Pick Up Last Week
With two and a half weeks remaining before the final Federal Reserve meeting of 2025, markets continue to gyrate around the likelihood of a potential 25 bps rate cut. After the stronger-than-expected September jobs report, futures markets leaned toward no cut on Thursday.
Sentiment rapidly reversed on Friday following comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who noted that labor market weakness now poses a greater risk to the economy than inflation and suggested the Fed may be in a position to continue lowering rates.
The probability of a December cut jumped from 39% on Thursday to 73.5% on Friday, nearly doubling in a single session and highlighting how sensitive and reactive markets have become in recent weeks.
Source: CME Group FedWatch, as of 11/21/25
Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia delivered another standout quarter, beating expectations for Q3 and issuing strong fourth-quarter guidance, offering clear evidence against those calling for an AI bubble. Sales grew 62.5% from a year ago, while earnings rose 59%, extending the company’s remarkable run of expansion.
The stock initially jumped in after-hours trading following Wednesday afternoon’s report and pushed higher into Thursday morning, but those gains faded by the end of the week as AI bubble concerns weighed on sentiment.
Major Retailer Earnings
Target, Walmart, TJX Companies, Home Depot, and Lowe’s all reported Q3 earnings last week, offering insight into shifting consumer spending behavior. Walmart continued to pull ahead of Target as shoppers gravitated toward Walmart’s lower prices and stronger value proposition.
Target, facing consumer perceptions of weaker value, reported slight year-over-year declines in both revenue and earnings and lowered forward guidance. Walmart, on the other hand, beat expectations and raised its outlook, with sales and earnings each up roughly 6% from a year ago.
Similar to Walmart, TJX Companies (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods) continued to benefit from deal-savvy shoppers, as well as higher-income consumers trading down. The company posted revenue and earnings beats, with full-year guidance coming in ahead of expectations despite a slightly softer Q4 outlook.
Home improvement retail earnings told a more cautious story. Home Depot missed expectations, while Lowe’s came in slightly above, but both lowered guidance for the year ahead, citing economic uncertainty and reduced demand for home improvement projects.
Overall, consumers are increasingly prioritizing value, discounts, and essential items. While results from Home Depot and Lowe’s highlight some caution, consumer spending remains steady, but more selective, as shown by strength at Walmart and TJX Companies.
Leading Economic Indicators
Delayed by the shutdown, the August Leading Economic Index showed its largest decline since April, driven by weaker consumer expectations, manufacturing hours, building permits, new orders, and initial claims. Positive contributions from credit conditions and August’s market performance softened the drop, but the report still points to a cooling economy and underscores the need to watch incoming lagged data in the weeks ahead.
Source: The Conference Board
Summary
Equities weakened again last week as concerns over stretched technology valuations persisted, even in the face of Nvidia’s strong quarterly earnings. The long-delayed jobs report came in broadly stronger, showing steady hiring and healthy wage gains, while major retailer results pointed to a consumer who is becoming increasingly value conscious. Markets swung throughout the week as expectations for a potential December rate cut shifted, regaining some ground on Friday after dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, and the latest Leading Economic Index continued to signal a cooling economic backdrop.
We appreciate your continued trust.
Thank you,
Joseph M. Maas,
CFA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU®, MSFS, CCIM, CVA, ABAR, CM&AA
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