Market Update – June 16th, 2025

Financial Markets

Stocks declined later in the week as escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran weighed on market sentiment. As of the close on Friday, June 13th, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.63%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.32%.

Source: Y-Charts

Market News

May CPI. Prices rose less than expected in May, with headline inflation increasing 2.4% year-over-year and core inflation at 2.8%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core prices rose just 0.1%, demonstrating that inflationary pressures remain contained despite tariff concerns.

Source: Y-Charts

Energy prices were a major contributor, falling 3.5% from a year ago, while apparel declined 0.9%. Shelter remained one of the stickier components, rising 3.9% year-over-year, while transportation services increased 2.8%. Grocery prices rose 2.2% compared to May of last year, while dining out rose 3.8%. The continued easing of inflationary pressures adds to evidence that inflation is moving in the right direction, though the Fed is likely to remain cautious until there’s more clarity on the trend’s durability.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

May PPI

Producer prices rose modestly in May, with the headline PPI up 2.6% year-over-year and core PPI at 2.7%. On a monthly basis, prices increased by just 0.1%, supported by flat energy prices and a 0.2% decline in transportation and warehousing costs. Food prices rose 0.1%, while trade services increased 0.4%. Overall, this month’s data suggests that inflation pressures remain mild and tariffs have not yet led to a meaningful rise in producer costs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oil Prices Spike

Oil prices surged as much as 8% on Friday after escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, following Israel’s initial attack late Thursday night. The sharp rise reflects market fears of broader regional instability and these tensions will likely bleed into this week.

Source: CNBC

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in six months, jumping nearly 16% from last month as expectations for both short- and long-term business conditions improved sharply, reflecting easing concerns about tariffs. The increase was broad-based across ages, income levels, political affiliations, and regions. Inflation expectations for the year ahead also dropped meaningfully, from 6.6% to 5.1%. While the rebound is encouraging, sentiment remains well below late 2024 levels, and consumers remain cautious about the broader economic outlook.

Source: The University of Michigan

Initial & Continuing Claim

Initial and continuing jobless claims have been gradually rising in recent months, even as the overall unemployment rate remains stable. For the week ending June 7, initial claims came in at 248,000, with the four-week moving average rising to 240,250, the highest level of the moving average since August of 2023.

Continued claims also climbed to 1.96 million as of May 31, the highest since 2021. While this could reflect a healthy cooling after a strong post-pandemic labor market boom, it may also be signaling emerging cracks in the broader U.S. economy.

Source: FRED

Summary

Markets drifted lower last week as investors digested encouraging inflation data alongside a spike in oil prices stemming from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. While May’s CPI and PPI reports showed inflation remains contained, rising jobless claims and renewed geopolitical risk kept sentiment cautious. Still, improving consumer confidence and stable employment figures suggest the economy remains on relatively firm footing for now.

We appreciate your continued trust.

Thank you,

Joseph M. Maas, 
CFA, CFP®, ChFC, CLU®, MSFS, CCIM, CVA, ABAR, CM&AA

The information contained herein is general in nature. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is provided for illustrative or informational purposes only, and should not be construed as advice. Our advisors can meet with you to discuss your retirement plan.

Content is used with the permission of Synergy Asset Management. This information is being provided to you as it has been determined by SPG Advisors LLC to be suitable in relation to your portfolio, needs, objectives, and other considerations. SPG Advisors, LLC and Synergy Asset Management are affiliated. All such information is provided solely for convenience, educational, and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing comes with risk, including risk of loss. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form without the prior written permission of the publisher.